As the 2025 Formula 1 season approaches, seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton embarks on a new chapter with Ferrari. According to an analysis of betting odds by My Betting Edge, Hamilton has a 14% chance of winning the Drivers’ Championship this upcoming season, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the British driver in his debut season with the Scuderia.
Hamilton’s move to Ferrari marks a significant shift after an 11-year tenure with Mercedes, during which he secured six of his seven titles. His decision to join Ferrari has been met with mixed reactions, with some questioning whether the team can provide a car capable of challenging for the championship, while others believe his experience and racecraft could be the missing ingredient Ferrari needs to return to the top.
The current betting odds place Hamilton behind favorites such as Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, and Lando Norris. His 14% implied probability of winning the title suggests bookmakers believe he has an outside shot but is not the leading contender. This skepticism stems from Ferrari’s inconsistent form in recent years and the uncertainty surrounding how well Hamilton will adapt to a new car and team environment after over a decade with Mercedes.
Ferrari has not clinched a Drivers’ Championship since Kimi Räikkönen’s victory in 2007. Hamilton’s potential to break this drought is a focal point of discussion among fans and analysts. His experience and skill are undeniable, but adapting to a new team environment and car dynamics presents challenges.
The battle within Ferrari itself could also be a crucial factor, as Hamilton’s teammate, Charles Leclerc, is expected to be a strong contender. If Ferrari delivers a competitive car, managing the intra-team rivalry could be just as important as taking on Red Bull and McLaren.
The 2025 season is anticipated to be highly competitive, with multiple teams in the mix for race wins. Red Bull remains a dominant force, while McLaren’s resurgence has added another layer of complexity to the title fight. Mercedes, despite losing Hamilton, is still expected to be a factor with George Russell leading their charge.
While a 14% chance of winning may seem modest for a driver of Hamilton’s caliber, it underscores the competitive nature of the upcoming F1 season and the uncertainties inherent in such a high-profile team change.